Michael Asante
While Manitoba’s business community is cautiously optimistic, leaders outside Winnipeg are clear that rural and smaller centre Manitoba are ready to do more if cost pressures, labour shortages, and infrastructure gaps are addressed.
This year’s Manitoba Business Outlook Survey gathered insights from 157 business decision-makers across the province. About three in five respondents are from Winnipeg, while two in five represent rural, northern, eastern, western, and southern Manitoba for a balanced view of business challenges and opportunities.
Confidence with Caveats
Across the province, businesses remain reasonably hopeful about the year ahead. Roughly six in ten leaders say they are optimistic about their business performance, while fewer than two in ten feel pessimistic. Most expect revenues and staffing to hold steady or grow, with nearly half anticipating revenue increases and only a small minority expecting declines. That optimism is fragile, though. Rising operating costs, taxes and regulation, and labour availability top the list of challenges, ahead of issues like access to capital or innovation. Businesses that grew last year are much more likely to feel Manitoba is on the right track, underscoring how closely confidence is tied to what leaders see in their own operations.
For employers, the message is simple: those who manage costs and secure talent will move ahead; others risk falling behind. For policymakers and community leaders, tax policy, regulation, and workforce support go straight to the heart of business confidence.
Trade Risks Outside Winnipeg
Outside Winnipeg, trade risks feel closer. Close to nine in ten non-Winnipeg businesses are concerned about trade disruptions and shifting global dynamics, compared with roughly three in four in Winnipeg. Nearly three-quarters of businesses outside the city say U.S. trade tensions have harmed their operations, versus just over half in Winnipeg. That shows up as higher input costs, disrupted supply chains, border delays, and greater uncertainty around hiring and capital investments. A manufacturer waiting on a specialized U.S. part can see production stall and costs rise with every delay. Improving trade-related infrastructure, helping firms diversify markets, and cutting administrative bottlenecks can ease that pressure.
Costs as the Biggest Barrier
Cost pressure is everywhere. Regardless of size or sector, the cost of doing business is the single biggest barrier to growth, led by wages, inputs, insurance, rent, and utilities. Labour availability and retention follow closely, with trade uncertainty and regulatory burden also ranking high. For a rural retailer, that might mean higher freight, utilities, and insurance while serving customers feeling the squeeze of rising living costs. When asked what would most improve Manitoba’s competitiveness, nearly half of the respondents chose reducing business taxes, and many called for streamlined regulations and less red tape. Outside Winnipeg, support for business tax reductions is even stronger.
Rural Manitoba’s Untapped Potential
Rural Manitoba is a growth engine in waiting. Many businesses already draw part of their workforce from rural communities and source inputs from rural Manitoba. They point to proximity, long-standing relationships, and more reliable supply as key advantages. Views are mixed on how easy it is to do business in rural areas: about one-third say it is easy, while one in five find it difficult. Even so, half expect rural Manitoba to play a significant role in future growth. That signals opportunities for employers to deepen supplier relationships and expand into smaller centres where land and facilities may be more affordable. It highlights the importance of solid infrastructure, timely permitting, and accessible local services.
Labour Shortages and Skills Gaps
Labour shortages are reshaping decisions. Only a small minority of leaders feel access to skilled labour has improved in the past two years, while more than four in ten say it has worsened. Many are raising wages and incentives, leaning harder on existing staff, and delaying growth or investment plans. Skilled trades and technical roles are among the hardest positions to fill, along with general labour and professional roles such as engineers, accountants, and lawyers. Employers outside Winnipeg are especially likely to struggle with skilled trades and entry-level hiring. That makes the case for targeted training, expanded apprenticeships, and closer partnerships between employers and education and training providers.
Different Tools for Rural and Urban Employers
Rural and urban employers need different tools. When asked what would help them adapt to today’s labour conditions, businesses point to a mix of training, policy, and community supports: stronger partnerships with post-secondary institutions, incentives for training and upskilling, and smoother credential recognition. Many also want more stability and predictability in immigration and international student policies. Community‑level supports matter as well. Expanded childcare and family supports are high priorities, especially for employers trying to attract or retain parents. In rural and non-Winnipeg areas, leaders more often emphasize better healthcare access as crucial for making their regions attractive places to live and work.
Quality of Life as Economic Strategy
Quality of life is now firmly a business issue. When asked where the province should focus to make Manitoba a more appealing place to live and work, just over half of respondents point to public safety and community well-being, and just under half highlight healthcare and access to services. In Winnipeg, nearly two-thirds say public safety should be a top focus to keep residents. Outside Winnipeg, almost half of the leaders put healthcare at the top of their list. Lower personal income taxes, better infrastructure, improved affordability, and a stronger investment climate also rank highly. People stay where they can build a good life, not just a good career, and employers know that partnering on housing, childcare, and safety can be as important as wages and benefits in building a stable workforce.
Turning Cautious Optimism into Growth
Taken together, the survey shows a province that believes in its potential but feels boxed in by rising costs, tight labour markets, and trade uncertainty, especially outside the capital. The good news is that practical steps are within reach. Employers can focus on cost discipline, training, and stronger rural partnerships. Communities can invest in the fundamentals that make places livable and investable. Policymakers can move on to what businesses are clearly asking for. If those pieces start to shift, the cautious optimism in this year’s survey can solidify into lasting, broad-based growth in every region of Manitoba.