For an employer in Southeast Manitoba trying to fill a position, even a small shift in unemployment can change how quickly applicants come forward.
The latest data show some easing after a softer start to the year. Southeast’s unemployment rate reached 5.0% in July 2026, down from its March peak of 6.0%. It rose from 4.3% in June, which suggests the recovery path may still move unevenly from month to month.
Figure 1. Southeast’s unemployment rate rose through early 2026, peaked at 6.0% in March, eased to 4.3% in June, and stood at 5.0% in July.
Has the early-2026 pressure started to ease?
The first part of 2026 was softer than the same period in 2025. Still, the monthly pattern has improved since March.
Southeast’s unemployment rate reached 6.0% in March, then eased to 5.7% in April and 5.4% in May. It dropped further to 4.3% in June before rising to 5.0% in July.
That July rate was higher than the 3.6% recorded in July 2025. March, April, and May 2026 were also above the same months a year earlier, when unemployment sat at 4.9%, 5.5%, and 5.2%.
The comparison matters because 2025 was an unusually tight year for Southeast. Unemployment fell to 3.3% in September and held at 3.6% in both July and August.
Here’s what stands out: Southeast has moved away from the very tight conditions of 2025, while still easing from its early-2026 high.
Why does 2025 make the current numbers look softer?
Southeast is coming off a very strong labour market year.
A 5.0% unemployment rate in July 2026 shows more slack than the region saw during parts of 2025. Last year, unemployment fell as low as 3.3% in September and sat at 3.6% in July and August.
The July 2026 rate still looks moderate when placed against the longer record. The larger story is one of cooling from unusually tight conditions rather than a sharp break in labour market stability.
Trend to watch: Southeast’s unemployment rate remains below its March 2026 peak of 6.0%, but the increase from 4.3% in June to 5.0% in July shows that the improvement may continue unevenly.
How does Southeast compare with Winnipeg?
Southeast continues to compare favourably with Winnipeg on unemployment.
In May 2026, Southeast posted an unemployment rate of 5.4%, while Winnipeg recorded 6.0%. The same pattern appeared in April, with Southeast at 5.7% and Winnipeg at 6.0%. In March, Southeast stood at 6.0%, compared with 6.2% in Winnipeg.
Southeast’s rate then fell to 4.3% in June before rising to 5.0% in July. That keeps the region within a moderate range after a softer start to the year.
This pattern has appeared during earlier periods of stress. During the pandemic spike in June 2020, Southeast’s unemployment rate reached 7.8%. Winnipeg climbed much higher, reaching 12.5%.
Southeast has often kept unemployment below Manitoba’s largest urban labour market, even during more difficult periods.
What does the longer record show?
Southeast has moved through several labour market cycles over the past decade.
From 2016 to 2019, unemployment mostly ranged between about 3.1% and 6.3%. The pandemic pushed the rate higher, with peaks of 7.8% in June 2020 and 7.6% in April 2021.
The recovery that followed was strong. By November 2022, unemployment had fallen to 2.6%, followed by 3.1% in December.
Much of 2023 and 2024 stayed below 5.0%, reinforcing Southeast’s pattern of relatively contained unemployment after major periods of stress.
What should we watch next?
Southeast’s labour market has loosened compared with a year ago. The latest data show that clearly.
The region still compares well with Winnipeg and remains within a moderate unemployment range by recent standards. After reaching 6.0% in March 2026, unemployment eased to 5.4% in May, dropped to 4.3% in June, and then rose to 5.0% in July.
The next signal to watch is whether Southeast settles near the 5% range through the rest of the year or moves back toward the tighter conditions seen in 2025.