What the latest U.S. tariffs could mean for Manitoba and rural communities
By Michael Asante
The latest U.S. tariffs will not affect every Manitoba exporter equally. But Manitoba’s close trading relationship with the United States means the province has plenty at stake.
On August 22, the United States imposed additional 50 per cent tariffs on more than 500 Canadian products, covering roughly $28 billion in Canadian exports. The measures were imposed under Section 338 of the U.S. Tariff Act of 1930 and, importantly, do not provide a general exemption for CUSMA-compliant goods covered by the tariff list.
ATB Economics identifies electrical and industrial machinery, furniture and lighting, plastics and rubber, chemicals and cosmetics, and wood and paper products among the sectors most affected. ATB’s provincial analysis also estimates that when the new tariffs are layered on top of existing U.S. tariffs, British Columbia, Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba face the highest overall effective U.S. tariff rates among the provinces.
For Manitoba, that finding is significant because manufacturing, agriculture and food processing are deeply connected to the U.S. market.
How exposed is Manitoba to the U.S.?
The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (MBS) provides a useful picture of that relationship.
During the first six months of 2025, Manitoba exported $10.14 billion in goods to international markets. Of that, $7.10 billion went to the United States. U.S.-bound exports were down 6.2 per cent compared with the same period in 2024, while Manitoba’s total exports declined 3.0 per cent.
These figures predate the latest Section 338 tariffs, so the decline should not be interpreted as an effect of the tariffs introduced in August 2026. Instead, they show how important the U.S. market was to Manitoba before the latest trade escalation.
MBS also shows that the connection is especially strong in manufacturing.
Between January and June 2025, Manitoba exported $5.65 billion in manufactured goods to the United States. Food manufacturing accounted for $1.27 billion, chemical manufacturing $1.15 billion, transportation equipment $946 million, machinery manufacturing $821 million, and plastics and rubber products almost $360 million.
Several of these industries overlap with the broad product groups ATB identifies as exposed to the new Section 338 tariffs.
That does not mean all $5.65 billion is now subject to a 50 per cent tariff. The U.S. tariffs apply at specific Harmonized Tariff Schedule product codes, while the MBS industry figures are broader NAICS categories.
The distinction matters. A precise estimate of Manitoba’s direct dollar exposure would require matching Manitoba exports at detailed product codes against the U.S. Section 338 tariff list.
What the available data clearly show is that Manitoba has substantial activity in several industries now facing additional U.S. trade barriers.
The rural connection goes beyond farming
For rural Manitoba, the story is broader than primary agriculture. Rural and small-town Manitoba is itself a significant participant in international trade. In 2024, businesses in rural and small-town Manitoba exported approximately $6.49 billion in goods, while imports were valued at about $950.3 million. Statistics Canada counted 625 exporting businesses in rural and small-town Manitoba that year. On the import side, 1,820 businesses were recorded in 2023.
These figures show that trade exposure extends well beyond Winnipeg and Manitoba’s largest urban centres. For rural communities, changes in U.S. tariffs can affect not only agricultural producers, but also manufacturers, processors, equipment suppliers and other businesses engaged in international trade.
During the first half of 2025, Manitoba recorded $2.26 billion in agricultural exports, up 6.4 per cent from a year earlier. Agricultural exports directly to the United States were valued at $630.3 million, up 10.2 per cent.
But agriculture is only part of the rural economic picture. Food processors, agricultural machinery manufacturers, transportation businesses, equipment suppliers and other manufacturers operate throughout rural Manitoba. That means the effects of trade disruption can move through local economies even where the primary agricultural commodity itself is not directly tariffed.
The MBS commodity data illustrates these connections. During January to June 2025, Manitoba exported $362.8 million in frozen potatoes and vegetables to the U.S., $360.7 million in canola oil, $228.9 million in harvesting and agricultural machinery, $136.2 million in live swine and $117.7 million in pork.
These figures measure the importance of the U.S. market. They should not be interpreted as saying that all these products are subject to the new 50 per cent Section 338 tariff.
That product-by-product distinction is essential to understanding the actual rural impact.
Agri-food adds another layer
A separate Manitoba Agriculture dataset provides a broader measure of the province’s agri-food economy.
Manitoba’s agri-food exports totalled $9.04 billion in 2025, accounting for 45.9 per cent of the province’s total international exports under Manitoba Agriculture’s agri-food definition (see chart). The United States purchased $3.95 billion, or 43.7 per cent, of those exports.
The largest Manitoba agri-food exports to the U.S. were canola oil, processed frozen potatoes and pork.
These numbers should not be added directly to the MBS agriculture figures. Manitoba Agriculture’s agri-food definition includes processed products, while MBS separates primary agriculture from manufacturing.
Both datasets, however, point to the same conclusion: the U.S. market is important not just to Manitoba farmers, but to the processing and value-added industries built around agriculture.
Honey is one confirmed direct exposure
Honey provides one of the clearest examples where a direct rural Manitoba connection can be established. The official U.S. Section 338 product list includes HTSUS 0409.00.00, natural honey, which is subject to the additional 50 per cent tariff.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) reports that $28.793 million in honey exports were recorded from Manitoba in 2025, representing 53.5 per cent of Canada’s total honey export value. Manitoba also produced 17.85 million pounds of honey in 2025, accounting for 21.2 per cent of Canadian production.
Nationally, the United States purchased $28.456 million in Canadian honey in 2025, representing 52.9 per cent of Canada’s honey exports by value. By volume, the U.S. received 5,354 metric tonnes, or 56.1 per cent of Canada’s honey exports. Japan was the second-largest market.
There is an important limitation.
AAFC notes that provincial export figures can include honey not produced in the province from which it is exported. The data also do not show how much of Manitoba’s $28.793 million in reported honey exports went specifically to the United States.
The safe conclusion is therefore that Manitoba has a significant honey industry and accounts for a large share of Canada’s reported honey exports, while the United States is Canada’s largest honey export market. Because natural honey appears explicitly on the Section 338 list, this is a rural Manitoba industry worth watching closely.
Rural businesses can also be affected through imports
The tariff story has another side: what Manitoba businesses buy from the United States.
MBS recorded $13.17 billion in imports from the U.S. during the first six months of 2025, up 9.0 per cent from the same period in 2024.
Agricultural equipment is particularly relevant to rural Manitoba. During that period, MBS recorded $562.4 million in harvesting, threshing and other agricultural and mowing machinery imported from the U.S. Manitoba also recorded $316.1 million in U.S. tractor imports and $179.4 million in selected machinery parts.
These figures need one important qualification. MBS reports exports on a province-of-origin basis, but imports on a province-of-clearance basis. Goods clearing customs in Manitoba are not necessarily ultimately consumed in Manitoba. MBS therefore cautions against interpreting import figures as a perfect measure of provincial consumption.
Still, the data demonstrates the scale of cross-border equipment flows associated with Manitoba. That becomes relevant because Canada has announced counter-tariffs on $27.6 billion in U.S. goods, effective September 8. Rates of 15, 25 and 50 per cent will apply depending on the product. Agricultural equipment is among the sectors included.
The detailed Canadian list includes particular agricultural machinery classifications, such as certain mowers and machinery parts. It does not impose a blanket tariff on every tractor, combine or piece of farm equipment coming from the United States.
For rural businesses, the practical question will therefore be whether the exact equipment or component they purchase falls within one of the targeted tariff codes.
Manitoba’s closest U.S. markets matter
Geography also matters. Nearly half of Manitoba’s U.S.-bound exports during the first half of 2025 went to Midwestern states, reaching approximately $3.54 billion.
That concentration highlights Manitoba’s integration with the central North American economy. Agricultural production, manufacturing, transportation and supply chains cross the border regularly. Trade disruption affecting those relationships can therefore reach businesses that never directly export a product themselves.
An exporter facing weaker U.S. sales may purchase less from local suppliers, postpone equipment investments or reduce hiring. Transportation companies can see fewer shipments. Processors can adjust production. These are indirect effects, and their size cannot yet be measured from the available Manitoba data, but they are important channels to monitor.
Businesses outside Winnipeg were already concerned
Survey evidence suggests that trade disruption was already weighing more heavily on businesses outside Winnipeg before this latest tariff escalation.
The Manitoba Chambers of Commerce’s 2025 Business Outlook Survey, conducted by Leger with 157 Manitoba business decision-makers, found that 87 per cent of businesses outside Winnipeg were concerned about trade disruptions, tariffs or shifting global trade conditions, compared with 74 per cent in Winnipeg.
Businesses outside Winnipeg were also more likely to report negative effects from U.S. trade tensions, at 73 per cent compared with 55 per cent in Winnipeg.
Among businesses across Manitoba that reported negative effects from U.S. trade tensions, 76 per cent cited increased costs for materials, components and equipment, 41 per cent cited supply-chain disruptions, and 39 per cent reported uncertainty affecting hiring, financial planning and investment decisions.
That supports ATB’s broader warning that prolonged trade uncertainty could become as important as the tariffs themselves by making businesses more cautious about investment and hiring.
Diversification helps, but the U.S. is difficult to replace
Manitoba does have markets beyond the United States. In 2025, Japan purchased $1.12 billion in Manitoba agri-food products, China purchased $1.01 billion and Mexico purchased $648 million. But the U.S. purchased $3.95 billion.
Diversification therefore should not be understood as quickly replacing the American market. The more realistic goal is to reduce concentration risk over time while maintaining access to existing U.S. customers. Canada has announced $7.5 billion in new and enhanced support measures for workers and businesses affected by U.S. tariffs, alongside its September 8 counter-tariffs.
For rural Manitoba, the important question will be whether smaller manufacturers, processors, agricultural businesses and exporters can access those programs and adjust their markets or supply chains if the trade dispute persists.
What should rural Manitoba watch next?
The new U.S. measures should not be described as a blanket 50 per cent tariff on Manitoba exports or Manitoba agriculture. They are product specific.
Rural Manitoba nevertheless has significant exposure because of the scale of its trade with the United States and because several important Manitoba industries overlap with sectors identified in the new tariff measures.
The strongest direct rural example identified so far is honey. Manufacturing exposure also deserves close attention, particularly machinery, plastics, wood and paper products and other products appearing on the Section 338 list. Canadian counter-tariffs create a second issue through the cost of selected U.S. equipment and components.
The Manitoba story will therefore depend on more than the headline tariff rate.
The indicators worth watching are which Manitoba products are captured by the tariff codes, U.S. export sales, agricultural and manufacturing investment, equipment and input costs, employment, business confidence, market diversification, and any exemptions or negotiated tariff relief that follow.
Data note
The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Q2 2025 report is used as the principal source for Manitoba’s trade relationship with the United States. Its data cover January to June 2025, before the August 2026 Section 338 tariffs, and are used to establish the province’s underlying trade exposure rather than to estimate the economic effects of the new tariffs.