For much of the past decade and a half, unemployment in the region has stayed relatively contained outside major shocks. Participation, however, has moved much more dramatically.
Figure 1. Labour force participation in Southwest Manitoba has moved through several cycles, with stronger engagement in earlier years, a sharp 2020 decline, and renewed softening after the 2024 recovery.
That matters. A region can have low unemployment and still face labour market pressure if fewer people are actively working or looking for work.
What changed after the early 2010s?
Southwest Manitoba entered the early 2010s with strong labour force participation. The participation rate regularly sat above 70%, reaching 72.8% in mid-2011 and climbing as high as 74.1% in August 2012. Those were years when a large share of the working-age population was either employed or actively looking for work. That level of engagement did not hold. Over the following years, participation gradually weakened. Then came the 2020 shock, when the rate fell sharply and reached 62.1% in May 2020.
The labour market did recover, but not in a straight line. Participation rose back above 70% in mid-2024, including 70.6% in August 2024. By December 2025, it had eased again to 63.5%. Here’s what stands out: the region has shown it can return to stronger labour force engagement, but the recovery has not been sustained.
Unemployment has been lower than the participation swings suggest
Unemployment tells a different story. For much of the period, Southwest Manitoba’s unemployment rate stayed between 3% and 5%. It even fell as low as 2.6% in December 2012.There were clear periods of stress. In 2016, unemployment rose above 6% for several months. The sharpest spike came in 2020, when the rate reached 9.8% in June during the height of the economic disruption. After that, conditions improved. Unemployment fell steadily and reached 3.0% in November 2022. More recently, the rate has drifted upward, ending 2025 at 4.7% in December.
Figure 2. Southwest Manitoba’s unemployment rate has fluctuated over time, with the sharpest spike occurring during the 2020 shock before easing again in later years.
That is still a moderate level, especially when viewed against the larger swings in participation.
Trend to watch: Southwest Manitoba’s labour market challenge appears to be less about high unemployment and more about keeping people attached to the labour force.
How does Southwest compare with Southeast?
Figure 3. Southwest Manitoba’s participation rate sits below Southeast and Winnipeg, suggesting lower overall labour market engagement among the working-age population.
Figure 4. Southwest Manitoba’s unemployment rate remains lower than Southeast, Interlake, and Winnipeg, pointing to tighter conditions among those active in the labour force.
The comparison with Southeast Manitoba adds useful context. In December 2025, Southeast had a participation rate of 68.4%, compared with 63.5% in Southwest. That means a larger share of Southeast’s working-age population was active in the labour market. Unemployment, however, was slightly higher in Southeast at 5.1%, compared with 4.7% in Southwest.
So what does that tell us?
Southwest had fewer people participating overall, but among those who were active, unemployment remained slightly lower. This points to a tighter labour market for active workers, even though overall engagement was weaker.
The real signal is labour force attachment
Southwest Manitoba’s labour market has moved through periods of expansion, disruption, recovery, and renewed softening. But across that long monthly record, one pattern stands out clearly: participation has been the more volatile indicator. When participation falls, it can signal several things. Some residents may be retiring, returning to school, caring for family, discouraged from job searching, or leaving the region. Others may be stepping away from the labour market temporarily. The data do not explain every reason behind the movement, but they do show why participation deserves close attention.
A low unemployment rate can look reassuring on the surface. But if fewer people are active in the labour market, employers may still struggle to find workers, communities may face weaker workforce capacity, and regional growth may become harder to sustain. For Southwest Manitoba, the next question is not only whether unemployment stays low. It is whether more residents can be drawn back into the labour force—and whether that engagement can hold over time.